Why can live pairing trail the control group in its first weeks?
Usually for one of four reasons: too few contacts reached the assigned collector, the samples are still small, something changed on the floor early on, or something outside routing tilted the comparison. The first weeks of any live test are noisy, so judge live pairing on full months with adherence at or above the 70% minimum, rather than on the first few weeks.
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The assigned collector did not take the call
A contact tests pairing only when it reaches the collector it was assigned to. Accounts go elsewhere when that collector is busy or off shift and the dialer passes the call to whoever is free, when unworked accounts are reassigned, when collectors trade, or when lists load late. Those accounts still count in the BestPair group, as they must for a fair comparison, so every one of them narrows the gap.
That is why Stage 2 requires at least 70% of BestPair group contacts to reach the assigned collector, and why that share is on every monthly statement. Read it before you read the result. In a live test at a North American collection agency, the recommended collector took about 50% of the calls, and the case study notes that its headline month, May 2026, was the cleanest month of the test. The case study.
A few payments can swing a small sample
When most right-party contacts end without a payment or an arrangement, a week’s difference between two groups can rest on a handful of payments. Live pairing is scored on dollars collected per account contacted, so one large settlement can move a group’s week by itself. A big early lift is as likely to be noise as an early dip. Add contacts and dollars up over full months, and compare those.
The first weeks are the roughest
The model is updated about once a month, and weekly in the first couple of weeks. Several things can knock those first weeks:
- Paper the history does not cover, such as a new client’s placements or a type of debt the floor has not worked before.
- Experienced collectors leaving, taking well-known pairings with them. Pairing when turnover is high.
- A dialer change mid-test, when lists load late and routing rules are being rebuilt. Waiting for a dialer migration.
Something outside routing tilted it
- Payments still to post. Arrangements pay after the call, sometimes weeks later, so the latest weeks look worse than they will once those payments land.
- Groups chosen by hand. If anyone picked which accounts went where, the comparison no longer holds. BestPair’s 80/20 split is random, made as accounts arrive.
How to read the first months
- Adherence first. If the share reaching the assigned collector is under the minimum, fix that before judging anything else.
- Then volume. Check how many contacts and payments sit behind each group’s figure.
- Then causes. Leavers on the roster, a new placement, a dialer change, payments still to post.
- Then the result, on full months, against the rule you agreed before the start.
The method behind all of this is the same one any routing change should face. How to prove a routing change worked.
Common follow-up questions
Should we stop if the first month is behind?
Not on that alone. Check the adherence share and the number of contacts behind each group first, then look for a cause such as a run of leavers or payments still to post. One month, good or bad, says little about the next.
How long should we run it before deciding?
BestPair does not set a fixed trial length. Stage 2 is measured every month against the control group, and the agency can end it in the first 90 days on 30 days’ written notice. Agree before the start what result would count, and judge it on full months.
What do we pay in a month when the control group is ahead?
The $2,500 minimum. The monthly fee is the greater of 10% of the extra and $2,500, so a month with no extra costs the minimum. BestPair does not guarantee a level of lift.
What if the control group stays ahead?
Then pairing is not adding enough on that floor. The collectors may be too alike, or the account data may not predict who pays. The monthly comparison is there to show that as plainly as it shows a gain.
What it could mean on your floor
Two minutes
Watch the explainer
What your dialer does with the next account, what pairing changes, and what the Floor Assessment measures. With captions.
Watch the videoYour floor
Try the calculator
Four numbers off your dialer and collections reports give an illustrative figure for your floor. It is at best informed guesswork until your own history is measured.
Open the calculatorA live test
Read the case study
170,000 telecom accounts split at random before the first call, and how the result was counted.
Read it
Would it be a bad idea to spend 45 minutes finding out?
If your shop does not qualify, you will hear it on the call, not after you have paid for a report.
Book a 45-minute fit call